Headed to disaster? US, Russia harden stances in talks

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WASHINGTON – The nonaccomplishment of past week’s high-stakes diplomatic meetings to resoluteness escalating tensions implicit Ukraine has enactment Russia, the United States and its European allies successful uncharted post-Cold War territory, posing important challenges for the main players to debar an outright and perchance disastrous confrontation.

Unlike erstwhile disagreements that person arisen since the illness of the Soviet Union, the existent Ukraine situation and seemingly insurmountable differences betwixt Washington and Moscow transportation existent risks of debilitating economical warfare and subject struggle that are exacerbated by the dangers of miscalculation and overreaction.

For the U.S. and its NATO and different European allies, thing little than a immense pullback of the astir 100,000 Russian troops present deployed adjacent the Ukrainian borderline volition beryllium that Russian President Vladimir Putin has immoderate volition of negotiating successful bully faith. For the Russians, the West’s implicit refusal to see a prohibition connected NATO enlargement and the withdrawal of troops from Eastern Europe is impervious of its perfidy.

Potential concessions are analyzable by the information neither Putin nor President Joe Biden wants to beryllium seen arsenic backing down earlier either home oregon overseas audiences.

The refusal frankincense acold by each broadside to ascent down from what the different regards arsenic unrealistic and maximalist demands has near the prospects for diplomacy successful limbo, with the U.S. and its allies accusing Russia of stoking tensions for nary morganatic crushed and the Russians complaining again that the Americans are the aggressors.

Some judge the concern volition person to go adjacent much dire earlier the impasse tin beryllium broken.

“The spread successful perceptions is truthful wide that a caller and unsafe escalation could beryllium indispensable to marque the parties unfastened up their imaginativeness and hunt for agreements,” Fyodor Lukyanov, the caput of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, observed successful a commentary.

For Western analysts, it seems a concern successful which Putin volition person to compromise if struggle is to beryllium avoided. Some deliberation Putin's absorption connected NATO, which has struggled for years with questions astir its relevance, whitethorn person fixed the confederation a caller lease connected life.

“This is an highly uncertain and tense play without an evident mode retired unless Putin backs down,” said Jeff Rathke, a Europe adept and erstwhile U.S. diplomat who is presently president of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies astatine Johns Hopkins University.

“He’s talked himself into a frenzy that is hard to locomotion distant from if helium doesn’t get the cardinal redrawing of the European information architecture that helium claims to want. He’s shown he’s acceptable to play chickenhearted with the menace of monolithic subject unit to bring that astir and he’s surely gotten everyone’s attention, but helium hasn’t changed anyone’s views,” Rathke said.

U.S. officials from Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and nationalist information advisor Jake Sullivan to main negotiator Wendy Sherman person said it is Russia that faces a “stark choice.” De-escalate oregon look punishing sanctions and the other of what it wants: an accrued NATO beingness successful Eastern Europe and a much well-armed Ukraine.

Yet successful Russia, officials accidental the footwear is connected the different foot. They person formed their demands arsenic an “absolute imperative” and person argued that the Western nonaccomplishment to conscionable them makes talks connected different issues irrelevant.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that Russia had vainly tried for years to transportation the U.S. and its allies to prosecute successful talks connected the non-deployment of intermediate-range missiles to Europe, limits connected warfare games and rules to debar dangerously adjacent encounters betwixt Russian and allied warships and craft until the U.S. and NATO expressed willingness to sermon those issues this week.

He attributed the alteration successful attack to a U.S. tendency to displacement attraction distant from Russia’s main demands, adding that Moscow volition absorption connected NATO non-expansion. And helium insisted that it’s the U.S. that’s formulating the presumption successful talks portion different allies conscionable march connected its orders.

“To beryllium frank, everyone understands that the imaginable for reaching a woody depends connected the U.S.,” Lavrov said. He said immoderate the U.S. says astir the request to consult allies successful negotiations "are conscionable excuses and attempts to resistance the process out.”

Thus, the stalemate.

The West’s attack has been to person “as overmuch diplomatic effort arsenic imaginable to de-escalate,” said Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies astatine the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wherever helium oversees probe successful Washington and Moscow connected Russia and Eurasia.

“The occupation we’ve got is that the Russians mean business, and they’ve shown america successful a clump of cases, successful 2014, successful 2008, that they’re prepared to spell to warfare to get these things, and we’re not," helium said. "And that’s the challenge."

The pugnacious and uncompromising Russian positions person led immoderate to judge that Moscow volition lone up the ante aft receiving what each sides expect volition beryllium formal, written refusals from the U.S. and NATO to accede to its demands.

Indeed, the main Russian negotiator successful the talks, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, suggested Thursday that Moscow mightiness respond to rejections by escalating matters extracurricular of Europe done the imaginable deployment of troops to Cuba and Venezuela. The U.S. has called specified a proposition “bluster” and said it would respond decisively if it happened.

“The deficiency of a diplomatic solution logically leads to the further exacerbation of the crisis,” wrote Dmitri Trenin, the caput of the Carnegie Moscow Center, successful an online analysis.

Trenin predicted that a acceptable of “military-technical measures” that Putin said Russia would instrumentality if the West rejects its demands could see “a wide array of moves ... from the deployment of caller weapons systems successful assorted regions to overmuch stronger subject ties with Belarus and a person coordination with the Chinese partners.”

Still, there's a hazard that by focusing his ire connected NATO, Putin whitethorn person inadvertently strengthened its hand, particularly with its newer members similar the Baltic states, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic.

“For countries that person joined NATO since the Cold War, you tin decidedly accidental that NATO is much applicable to them present than it was a twelvemonth agone oregon successful 2014," Rathke said. “Anyone who thought that NATO was nary longer applicable to European information has been taught a acquisition successful the past fewer months. And it’s lone going to get worse.”

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Isachenkov reported from Moscow. Lorne Cook successful Brussels contributed to this report.

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