Kazakhstan adds uncertainty to talks with Russia on Ukraine

2 years ago 254

WASHINGTON – Russia’s determination to nonstop paratroopers into Kazakhstan, wherever a crackdown connected convulsive anti-government protests has near dozens dead, injects further uncertainty into upcoming talks implicit a imaginable Russian penetration of Ukraine.

The question is whether the unrest successful Kazakhstan has changed the calculations of Russian President Vladimir Putin arsenic helium weighs his options successful Ukraine. Some accidental Putin whitethorn not privation to prosecute successful 2 conflicts astatine the aforesaid time, portion others accidental Russia has the subject capableness to bash some and helium volition determine separately connected whether to onslaught Ukraine. The instability successful Kazakhstan whitethorn adjacent adhd caller urgency to Putin's tendency to enactment up Russia's powerfulness successful the region.

Both Kazakhstan and Ukraine are erstwhile Soviet republics that Putin has sought to support nether Moscow's influence, but truthful acold with vastly antithetic results. Ukraine, an aspiring ideology that has turned decisively toward the West, has been locked successful deadly struggle with Russia since Putin seized Crimea successful 2014 and backed an insurgency successful the eastbound Donbas region. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has been ruled successful the 3 decades since the Soviet illness by autocrats who person maintained adjacent information and governmental ties with Russia.

Russian troops entered Kazakhstan connected Thursday aft Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev invoked the assistance of a Russia-led subject alliance. The pursuing day, with Russian troops helping to reconstruct power implicit the airdrome and guarding authorities buildings, helium ordered his forces to sprout to termination immoderate protesters who don't surrender.

That led to Washington and Moscow exchanging caller barbs connected the eve of a week of meetings implicit Ukraine that begins with talks betwixt elder U.S. and Russian officials successful Geneva connected Monday.

Asked astir Kazakhstan and Ukraine connected Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said helium would not “conflate these situations.”

“There are precise peculiar drivers of what’s happening successful Kazakhstan close now, arsenic I said, that spell to economical and governmental matters,” Blinken said. “What’s happening successful determination is antithetic from what’s happening connected Ukraine’s borders.

“Having said that, I deliberation 1 acquisition of caller past is that erstwhile Russians are successful your house, it’s sometimes precise hard to get them to leave,” helium added.

The Russian Foreign Ministry fired backmost with a connection that referenced past U.S. wars and interventions successful different countries. “If Antony Blinken is truthful into past lessons, here's 1 that comes to mind: When Americans are successful your house, it tin beryllium hard to enactment alive, not being robbed oregon raped," the connection said.

The U.S. has for weeks warned that Putin has stationed troops adjacent Ukraine with the imaginable intent to signifier a caller invasion. Putin is not believed to person moved importantly much troops toward Ukraine successful the past respective weeks, according to 2 radical acquainted with the latest assessments who were not authorized to talk publicly. But astatine slightest 100,000 Russian troops stay successful positions wherever they could perchance onslaught parts of Ukraine, the radical said.

In response, Washington and Kyiv person ramped up their practice connected quality and information matters, the radical said.

In speech for easing tensions with Ukraine, Putin wants NATO to halt rank plans for each countries, including Ukraine. The U.S. and NATO person rejected that demand.

Lawmakers and longtime observers of Russia disagree connected however the Kazakhstan concern whitethorn impact Ukraine.

Fiona Hill, erstwhile elder manager for Russia and Europe astatine the U.S. National Security Council, said she believed the unit successful Kazakhstan “is astir apt going to accelerate Putin's tendency to bash something” successful Ukraine.

She said Putin whitethorn privation to reassert dominance crossed the portion by some shoring up the president successful Kazakhstan and undermining Ukraine's democratically elected leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“The Russian ellipse astir Putin, they truly bash privation to thatch the Ukrainians a lesson,” Hill said. “And they don’t shy distant from sidesplitting tons of radical oregon seeing tons of radical get killed.”

She noted that portion Kazakhstan is successful Central Asia, the bluish portion of the state was settled by Russians and Ukrainians successful Soviet times arsenic portion of the Virgin Lands campaign, and Russians spot it “very overmuch arsenic portion of their onshore and not conscionable a benignant of sphere of influence.”

“And truthful bluish Kazakhstan, betwixt Moscow and Almaty, is being seen arsenic an hold of Russia, conscionable similar Ukraine, Donbas and Belarus and each that concern and cultivation complex,” said Hill, a elder chap astatine the Brookings Institution.

In caller years, Russia has entered conflicts successful different neighboring erstwhile Soviet countries to prehend territory oregon bolster Moscow-friendly governments. In 2020, erstwhile protests broke retired successful Belarus implicit the reelection of longtime strongman Alexander Lukashenko, Russia stood by him during a brutal crackdown and offered to nonstop troops. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia and seized power of 2 separatist regions.

In Belarus and present Kazakhstan, Hill noted, determination is increasing vexation with Russian-backed elites and inequality, unneurotic with a increasing consciousness of nationalism. Those factors are besides contiguous successful Ukraine, portion discontent is increasing successful Russia arsenic well.

“This is profoundly troubling for Putin due to the fact that it shows that protests tin get retired of manus implicit societal issues,” she said. “And that adjacent if you marginalize the absorption and you look similar you’re successful charge, 1 time suddenly, you’re not.”

Some spot Kazakhstan arsenic besides presenting an accidental for Russia to consolidate its powerfulness regionally.

Fyodor Lukyanov, a starring Moscow-based overseas argumentation expert, said by stepping successful with subject unit Moscow has made itself the “guarantor upon whose presumption further events depend.” He said the concern was akin to Armenia successful 2020, erstwhile Russia sent peacekeeping troops aft a warfare with Azerbaijan implicit the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory.

“This is not a last concern oregon a solution, but it provides an effectual acceptable of tools for the play ahead," helium wrote successful a portion published Thursday.

With this happening connected the eve of the talks with the U.S., “Russia has sent a reminder of its quality to marque speedy and unconventional military-political decisions to power what is happening successful parts of the satellite that are important for it," Lukyanov said.

U.S. Rep. Mark Green, a Tennessee Republican who serves connected the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees, is among those who spot the uprising successful Kazakhstan arsenic deterring Russia successful Ukraine.

“I don’t spot Russia with the capableness of handling 2 crises simultaneously,” Green said. “I deliberation it volition deter their quality to wage a large struggle successful Ukraine.”

A fierce professional of the Biden administration, Green said helium supported Blinken’s nationalist statements successful enactment of Ukraine and his propulsion for a diplomatic solution.

“If Blinken’s actions are matching his rhetoric, past they’re doing OK here,” helium said.

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