Seven years after he first tried to strong-arm Ukraine into helping his reelection campaign, President Donald Trump appears to be at it again. This time, the stakes are the upcoming midterm elections, and the pressure is on Kyiv to stop retaliating against deadly Russian nighttime attacks on civilians. According to multiple sources, the White House hopes that by forcing Ukraine to stand down, it can help Republican candidates who are struggling with voters over soaring fuel prices. The strategy, however, has drawn sharp criticism from within Trump's own party and from European allies, who see it as a morally dubious attempt to appease Vladimir Putin and a dangerous repeat of the 2019 scandal that led to Trump's first impeachment.
In recent days, Trump has publicly blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for not ending the war with Russia, saying that Zelensky "could have ended this war many times. Many, many times. But he chooses not to." Trump also suggested that it is time for Ukraine to have a new president. These remarks came after Trump criticized Zelensky for ordering strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, which Ukraine has targeted to disrupt Russia's war machine. The US president has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that Zelensky is responsible for the spike in diesel prices, even though experts say the surge is largely due to Trump's own confrontation with Iran.
A Repeat of 2019, but Worse
Trump's efforts to pressure Ukraine are no longer limited to angry tweets and public statements. On Wednesday, Zelensky told US public radio that officials in the Trump administration had warned Ukrainian military leaders that the United States would stop sharing intelligence with Kyiv if it did not halt its strikes on Russian refineries. In addition, the Starlink satellite navigation system, which Ukraine has used to shoot down Russian drones, was abruptly disabled this week, sparking a public spat between Elon Musk and the Trump administration. The White House has not responded to questions about Trump's support for Putin, even as Russian forces continue to hit residential buildings and power plants in Ukraine.
By demanding that Ukraine take steps that could compromise its very existence in order to lower diesel prices, Trump is going far beyond his 2019 request. Back then, he conditioned the release of congressionally approved military aid on Zelensky opening an investigation into Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate. At the time, Russia was conducting smaller-scale attacks in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Putin was still three years away from launching the full-scale invasion in 2022. "It's the same use of government authority for purely political purposes," said John Bolton, who served as Trump's national security adviser during his first term and who, like several other critics of the president, has faced prosecution by the Justice Department under his second term.
Robert Kagan, a former State Department official under Ronald Reagan who is now at the Brookings Institution, believes that Trump's sudden shift in favor of Putin and against Ukraine has consequences that go far beyond the conflict itself. "The United States no longer has a foreign policy. Today, the United States is a predatory criminal enterprise," he said. The comparison to 2019 is inevitable, but the context is far more dangerous. Ukraine is now fighting for its survival against a full-scale Russian invasion, and any reduction in US support could tip the balance on the battlefield. The midterm elections, meanwhile, are shaping up to be a referendum on Trump's handling of the economy, and fuel prices are a top concern for voters.
The Gas Price Gambit
In recent days, Trump has repeatedly and falsely blamed Zelensky for the spike in diesel prices. In reality, according to experts, the price of a gallon of diesel, which is approaching $7—about $1.85 per liter—is explained by the war waged by the US president against Iran. Despite this, Trump is demanding that Ukraine stop targeting Russian refineries and instead accept a "deal" that would benefit Putin in a war that is approaching its fifth anniversary. "He wants to create problems for the world. He wants to create problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with, uh, diesel, because Russia supplies a large part of the world's diesel," Trump said on Saturday about Zelensky.
In a social media post, the US president announced another deal that would, in effect, lift sanctions on Russia to allow it to sell diesel to the United States. The announced deal, which at first glance appears to contradict a 2022 law prohibiting such imports, has been criticized by members of Congress, including Republicans, as well as by America's European allies. They see it as a betrayal of Ukraine and a reckless rapprochement with a leader accused of spreading violence and waging a deadly war. "The effects of this decision are uncertain, while the risks are obvious: legitimizing Moscow while its bombs continue to fall on Ukrainian cities, financing its war, and weakening sanctions," Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Wednesday before the Italian Senate.
The backlash from within Trump's own party has been notable. Ashley Hinson, a Republican congresswoman from Iowa who is running for the Senate in a state traditionally favorable to her party but where the race is expected to be tight, said on Tuesday evening: "We need to lower the price of diesel, but I don't think we need to make a deal with Russia to do it." Hinson's comments reflect a broader unease among Republicans who fear being associated with a policy that is seen as pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine. Many of them remember the 2018 midterms, when Trump's controversial comments about Putin and Russia were used against them in swing districts. This time, the stakes are even higher, as the party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections.
Experts Doubt Diesel Deal Will Lower Prices
Even if the deal goes through, oil industry experts estimate that allowing Russia to sell diesel to Western countries would barely relieve consumers who depend on it. "Five cents less per gallon of diesel," estimates Dan Eberhart, owner of oil services company Canary LLC and a Republican donor. "Too little, too late." Matt Randolph, who also has decades of experience in the industry, considers Eberhart's estimate of five cents per gallon to be overly optimistic. "Zero," he says flatly. "It doesn't add a drop of diesel to the global market. Moving diesel from one place to another doesn't change its price. Only an increase in supply or a decrease in demand can do that."
The fundamental problem, experts say, is that diesel prices are set globally, and Russia's ability to export more is limited by logistics, sanctions, and the ongoing war. Even if the US lifted sanctions, Russian diesel would likely be sold to other buyers, and the global market would not see a significant increase in supply. Meanwhile, Trump's demand that Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries could actually increase Russia's ability to export diesel, but only marginally, and at the cost of allowing Russia to continue its war against Ukraine. For many critics, the real motivation behind the policy is not to lower gas prices but to help Republican candidates by creating a narrative that Trump is taking action to address fuel costs, even if the action is ineffective and dangerous.
The pressure campaign on Ukraine has also raised concerns about the integrity of US foreign policy. By withholding intelligence and disabling Starlink, the administration is effectively undermining Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian attacks. "This is not just about midterms," said a former US official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This is about the president using the full power of the US government to help his political allies and to punish a country that is fighting for its survival. It's a betrayal of American values and of our allies." The official added that the administration's actions could embolden Putin and other authoritarian leaders who see the US as an unreliable partner.
As the midterms approach, the political calculus for Trump is clear: he needs to show that he is doing something about fuel prices, which have become a top issue for voters. But the means he has chosen—pressuring Ukraine, cutting off intelligence, and cutting a deal with Russia—are not only morally questionable but also unlikely to achieve the desired result. The backlash from Republicans like Hinson and from European allies like Meloni suggests that the strategy may backfire, alienating moderate voters and reminding them of the 2019 impeachment scandal. For now, the White House is doubling down, and Ukraine is left to fend for itself against a relentless Russian assault, while Trump pursues a political gambit that even his own supporters question.
Source: MSN News